2026-03-11T14:10:32Z https://wako.repo.nii.ac.jp/oai

oai:wako.repo.nii.ac.jp:00004943 2023-06-19T07:23:17Z 66:214

新型コロナウイルスのパンデミックが国内小売販売額へ与えた影響に関する分析 ： 階層ベイズモデルを用いた地域および時間による変動の検証 An Analysis on the Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic to Retail Sales in Japan : Verification of Regional and Temporal Variability Using a Hierarchical Bayesian Model 小林, 稔 新型コロナウイルス COVID-19 階層ベイズ 状態空間方程式 マルコフ連鎖モンテカルロ法 MCMC application/pdf This paper analyzed the effect of an increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19 on retail sales by region and at the time of observation by using our own hierarchical Bayesian model. Five business categories, epartment stores / supermarkets, convenience stores, large electronics specialty stores, drug stores, and home centers, were taken up as targets for retail sales analysis, and the impact of an increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19 on sales was analyzed. As a result, it was found that the increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19 had almost a negative effect on the sales of department stores / supermarkets and convenience stores. On the other hand, in large electronics specialty stores and home centers, the impact of the increase in the number of COVID-19 cases on sales was negative at the beginning of the spread of the disease, but became positive in most areas after May 2020. This is because the time spent at home increased due to the provision of subsidies based on the COVID-19 pandemic policy, the continuation of monetary easing policy, the issuance of state of emergency and the issuance of measures to prevent the spread, and the so-called nesting demand increased. On the other hand, for drugstores, the impact of an increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19 on sales was positive in almost all regions. In this way, this paper had constructed a hierarchical Bayesian model and analyzed the impact of an increase in the number of people infected with COVID-19 on retail sales by region and observation time and even business type. 和光大学社会経済研究所 2022-03 jpn departmental bulletin paper VoR https://wako.repo.nii.ac.jp/records/4943 AN00258120 02865866 和光経済 Wako Keizai 54 2.3 47 62 https://wako.repo.nii.ac.jp/record/4943/files/wk5423-10.pdf application/pdf 2.2 MB 2022-05-23